The Presidential and National Assembly campaigns will signal the start of campaigns for the 2027 general elections in Nigeria. The ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) will campaign for the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for a second term in office.
The 1999 Constitution of Nigeria (as amended) permits an incumbent serving a four year term to contest for a second term. The constitution allows a maximum of eight years for the President in total.
Tinubu is one of 19 candidates who will run for the presidency in 2027. Among them are Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Seyi Makinde of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) and Governor of Oyo State, Donald Duke of Peoples Redemption Party (PRP).
Political analysts generally see the upcoming presidential election as a referendum on Tinubu’s government, but I think it is going to be a referendum on the opposition as well. For those of you who may not be familiar with the term “referendum”, it is simply a direct vote by the electorate on a proposal, law or political issue.
The presidential polls of January 16, 2027 are predicted to result in two outcomes. On May 29, 2027, eligible voters in Nigeria will either vote Tinubu back into office for another four-year term or elect one of the remaining 18 presidential candidates to assume the mantle of leadership from him. That is if Nigerians are allowed to cast their votes in a free and fair atmosphere.
The election is seen as a referendum on Tinubu’s government because “ceteris paribus” (all other things being equal), the peoples opinion about the government will determine the fate of the President. If they consider that the government has done a good job then they will surely vote for him to continue. If they think differently they will elect a new President.
Nigerians will, no doubt, look at Tinubu’s achievements in office and weigh them against the promises he made while campaigning for the presidency in deciding his fate. Tinubu’s 2023 campaign was based on the slogan of “Renewed Hope Agenda,” a strategic policy blueprint for 2023-2027.
The policy as designed by the President and his party was meant to reform Nigeria’s economy, improve security and enhance living standard through eight core pillars. Priority areas are economic reforms, national security, food security, natural resource development, infrastructure expansion, human capital development, innovation (including digital economy growth), industrialization and good governance.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Tinubu the winner of the 2023 presidential election despite all odds, including serious concerns about his health, the Muhammadu Buhari administration’s poor security and economic scorecard, campaign gaffes and the controversy surrounding his same-faith (Muslim-Muslim) ticket, amidst the dust raised by his main opponents over the glitches that marred the upload of the results of the election to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IREV). The rest is history.
Today, President Tinubu is of the opinion that his government has done very well, unlike critics like the Catholic Bishops Conference of Nigeria who during a recent meeting with him expressed serious concerns about the worsening economic hardship, rising insecurity and democratic challenges. His appointees and other members of APC are never left out of the opportunity in the media to harp on the achievements of the present administration in various sectors especially the economy, infrastructure, education and security.
Some of the often trumpeted achievements of the present government include removal of fuel subsidy, unification of exchange rate, fiscal policies tightness and establishment of new tax architecture. Others include the attraction of billions of fresh foreign investments, increase in the stock market, security/ military upgrades and continuous construction of Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road and Sokoto Badagry Highway.
The government is also credited for the establishment of the National Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) and creation of regional development commissions. NELFUND was established to provide zero-interest loans for higher education, and the regional commissions were set up to fast-track local infrastructure and economic growth.
For all the trumpeted achievements, the general feeling outside the government circle and ruling party is that the Tinubu government failed in its primary duties of providing security and welfare for the citizens. Since the government came to power poverty and hardship have increased dramatically in the country.
Millions of Nigerians are struggling with high food inflation and deep hunger. For the first time in the history of Nigeria, a hunger protest hit different parts of the country few weeks after the one year anniversary of the present administration. International partners, such as the World Bank, say the “painful economic reforms” are bold and needed to ensure economic stability and national growth, but they have also taken a heavy toll on everyday citizens, with an estimated 139 million of them living in poverty.
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Transportation and food prices skyrocketed after President Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidy on the day of his inauguration, May 29, 2023. Though the federal government insist that the removal of subsidy has increased the revenue of the states and local governments, the standard of living of Nigerians continue to worsen.
Likewise, the liberalization of the foreign exchange market weakened the Naira and made imported goods much more expensive. The high cost drastically reduced the purchasing power of Nigerians, who are heavily dependent on imports.
The currency devaluation has created a difficult economic environment (foreign exchange shortages, high operating costs) resulting in scalebacks or exits by many well-known multi-national corporations and foreign investments. For example, Procter and Gamble (P&G) and GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Nigeria (GSK) closed manufacturing operations in Nigeria in December 2023. GSK also shut down its commercial operations and moved to a third party distribution model for its consumer brands and medicine.
The cost of drugs went through the roof with the departure of these companies and many others. People with chronic diseases like diabetes, cancer and arthritis were hit hardest. Number of jobs were lost due to the flight of companies from Nigeria, thereby worsening the already terribly bad unemployment situation in the country.
