Nigeria’s struggling revenue profile is set for a rise as Brent crude yesterday, rose above $100 a barrel for the first time in nearly two months, hitting $100.69 over escalating attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea deepen concerns that the Middle East supply crisis is spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

The 2026 federal budget of Nigeria is based on an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and targeted crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day.

The latest crude oil price increase is an increase of $36.42 per barrel above the projected oil price benchmark of $64.85.

Front-month Brent for September delivery was trading at $100.69 a barrel by mid-morning Thursday, up more than seven per cent on the day after touching an intraday high of $101.01. WTI was also sharply higher. The entire Brent forward curve moved higher as traders priced in a greater risk of prolonged supply disruptions.

The latest leg higher follows claims by the Houthis that the group attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, after declaring a naval blockade of Saudi exports earlier this week. Several vessels have reportedly changed course or delayed transits through the chokepoint, threatening the export route. Saudi Arabia has relied on to avoid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.”

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The move is another escalation for a market that had spent weeks betting geopolitical risk would ease. Now Brent has risen about 20 per cent in around two weeks as repeated attacks on commercial shipping, renewed fighting involving Iran and mounting export disruptions have steadily wiped out hopes of a quick return to normal oil flows.

The rally is not just about fears around Hormuz anymore. Kazakhstan has started cutting oil production following drone attacks that stopped tanker loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on the Black Sea. Indian state refiners have stopped loading Iraqi crude due to risks to shipping through Hormuz. Russian fuel exports are still limited after months of Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries.

Futures are tightening, and so is the physical market. Governments around the world have already released hundreds of millions of barrels from strategic reserves since the Middle East conflict began, commercial stocks have fallen sharply and China has slashed imports by drawing on stockpiles built up before the war. Those buffers are slowly disappearing.

The market is back in territory many analysts believed had been avoided with Brent’s return to triple digits after the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding briefly reopened hopes for a normalization of Middle East exports. But those expectations have quickly unravelled as the conflict has widened from Hormuz to the Red Sea, putting two of the world’s most important oil shipping routes under simultaneous threat.

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Oil prices edged higher in Asian trade on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s conditions for ending the war in the Middle East, sparking fresh fears of prolonged tension and possible disruption to global oil supplies.

The development rattled markets and investors were watching potential impact of the conflict on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude oil shipments, it was said.

Trump’s dismissal of Iran’s response to his latest peace offer raised worries that the crisis would continue, rather than rapidly de-escalate.

Trump, due in China this week where the Middle East conflict is expected to be a major topic of discussion, strongly criticised Iran’s stance.

I just read the answer of the so-called “Representatives” of Iran. “I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!”

But Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran would not agree to any arrangement that seemed to weaken its position.

“We will never surrender to the enemy,” he wrote on X on Sunday. “If there is talk of dialogue or negotiation, it does not mean surrender or retreat.”

The exchange further muddied hopes for a quick resolution to the crisis.

The analyst told AFP the deepening rift between Washington and Tehran had increased the danger of ongoing volatility in the oil market.

Trump’s response showed the two sides were still far apart, said Lloyd Chan of Japanese bank MUFG.

President Trump’s quick dismissal of the counter-demands “highlights the deep divide on both sides and points to the potential for prolonged uncertainty rather than rapid de-escalation,” he said.

“For oil markets this signals a permanent geopolitical risk premium while Hormuz disruptions endure,” Chan added.

Traders have been worried about the Strait of Hormuz, where any upset could impact supply of crude and push prices higher.

Asian Stocks Diverge
Asian shares were mixed on Monday, May 11, 2026, as investors weighed the impact of the Middle East crisis and developments in technology shares and trade diplomacy.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.36 percent to 62,486.84. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.34 percent to 26,303.16.

The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.89 percent to 4,216.96.

The KOSPI in South Korea rose four per cent, buoyed by a strong performance in technology stocks.

Shares of Japanese gaming giant Nintendo fell nearly 10 percent in Tokyo on Friday after the company warned of lower profits this year and said it would raise the price of its Switch 2 console.

United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was to visit Japan and South Korea before heading to China for Trump’s high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The summit will be held from Wednesday to Friday, Beijing said on Monday.

Bessent was due to meet Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Japan on Tuesday, with talks likely to cover Japan’s reported recent market interventions to support the yen.

US Treasury Secretary said he would meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Seoul.

“Economic security is national security,” Bessent wrote on 𝕏.

Trump and Xi agreed to a year-long trade truce in October during talks in South Korea after Washington and Beijing imposed tit-for-tat tariffs on each other’s exports a year ago.

Market Data
Brent North Sea crude was up 4.75 per cent to $99.95 a barrel at about 0330 GMT. West Texas Intermediate was up 4.16 per cent at $105.50 a barrel.

The euro fell to $1.1758 from $1.1779 on Friday. The pound was lower at $1.3592 from $1.3625.

The dollar rose to 157.14 yen from 156.76 yen and the euro edged higher against the pound to 86.50 pence from 86.45 pence.

In New York, the Dow finished flat at 49,609.16.

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The cost of refined petroleum products in international markets has been pushed up by a sharp rise in global crude oil prices and this could put renewed pressure on petrol prices in Nigeria.

The rise in prices is related to rising geopolitical tensions and major supply disruptions that have returned the global oil market to a period of increased volatility.
The price of crude oil has risen to its highest level since 2022, leading to fresh increases in the cost of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel around the world.

The rally, say industry analysts, is largely due to rising tensions in the Middle East along with tightening supply conditions in key oil-producing regions.

These developments are already feeding through to higher prices of refined petroleum products in global markets.

Crude oil, the primary input for petrol production, has been on a steady upward trend over recent weeks, following the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which nearly one‑fifth of global crude oil supplies are transported.

The disruption has stranded several oil tankers, further constricting supply and increasing pressure on prices.

This has pushed the average global price of petrol to around $1.5 per litre, a reflection of continued pressure from high crude oil prices and persistent geopolitical risks.

Although Nigeria runs a deregulated fuel pricing regime, it is still one of the lowest-priced petrol markets in the world where PMS is sold at around $0.9 per litre.

However, energy analysts warn that sustained volatility in global crude oil prices could eventually push domestic pump prices higher.

They point out that Nigeria’s current pricing advantage has been aided by better local supply conditions, especially increased output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has helped to stabilise fuel supply and cushion the immediate impact of rising international oil prices.

High fuel prices persist in advanced economies.

In Hong Kong, petrol costs about $4.2 per litre, one of the world’s most expensive markets.

Netherlands ($2.7/litre), Switzerland ($2.4), France ($2.3) and the United Kingdom ($2.1/litre) are other high-priced markets.

Across Africa, several countries are also struggling with high fuel prices due to heavy import dependence and currency pressures.

Malawi has one of the world’s highest petrol prices at about $3.8 per litre compared to Morocco where it sells at about $1.7 per litre.

Prices in Seychelles, Kenya and Cameroon are close to $1.5 per litre, while Ghana, Lesotho and South Africa average around $1.4 per litre.

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