Oil theft in Nigeria has decreased to 5,000 barrels per day (b/d), according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

This decrease in crude oil theft has resulted in an increase in national oil output, which has reached 1.75 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January 2025.

The commission’s chief executive, Gbenga Komolafe, disclosed this at the Renewed Hope Global Town Hall Conference in Abuja. He projected that oil production will increase by one million bpd by the end of 2026.

The NUPRC aims to further ramp up production to 2.6 mb/d by December 2026 as part of its strategic initiatives to enhance the country’s oil sector.

The recent decline in oil theft is attributed to intensified efforts by the Nigerian military and security agencies against pipeline vandalism and illegal oil bunkering operations in the Niger Delta region. In recent months, authorities have reported significant seizures of stolen oil and the dismantling of illegal refineries, indicating progress in combating this long-standing issue that has plagued Nigeria’s economy.
Despite these improvements, the country has faced substantial economic losses due to oil theft, with estimates suggesting that Nigeria lost around N2.3 trillion (approximately $3 billion) in 2023 alone due to such criminal activities.

The NUPRC’s current output levels are a positive sign for the industry, which has struggled with production challenges over the past few years27.

Looking ahead, the NUPRC’s target of 2.6 mb/d by late 2026 reflects a commitment to restoring Nigeria’s position as a key player in the global oil market, bolstered by ongoing security measures and regulatory reforms aimed at ensuring sustainable production levels.

Komolafe highlighted the progress made in curbing oil theft, which had previously caused a significant drop in production to 1.1 million bpd in 2022.

“Through kinetic and non-kinetic interventions, oil theft has significantly reduced to 5,000 bpd, leading to a steady production increase to 1.7 million bpd,” he stated.

He further outlined the government’s goal to boost production under the Project 1 MMBOPD initiative, which will rely on collaboration among operators, service providers, financiers, and host communities.

Komolafe also reported that gas production has increased to 7 billion standard cubic feet per day (SCFD), reflecting a positive shift in the upstream sector.

He emphasised that since the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021, the Commission has initiated several reforms to enhance regulatory effectiveness and attract investments.

“In May 2023, the Commission unveiled its 10-year Regulatory and Corporate Strategic Plan (2023–2033), followed by a Regulatory Action Plan for 2024, detailing key industry reforms,” he noted.

These reforms aim to: Increase oil and gas reserves and production, Enhance hydrocarbon accounting transparency, Achieve cost efficiency and decarbonisation, Ensure host community stability and Reduce the carbon footprint of upstream operations.

Komolafe highlighted the Nigeria Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) as a core component of the country’s energy transition strategy.

The initiative targets: Eliminating routine gas flaring, Reducing methane emissions and Encouraging carbon capture technologies.

Additionally, the Carbon Credits Earning Framework aims to monetise decarbonisation efforts while promoting sustainable energy practices.

Komolafe reported that the NUPRC has consistently exceeded revenue targets, achieving an 84 per cent increase above its budgeted revenue in 2024.

To strengthen fiscal transparency, the Commission has implemented regulations on: Hydrocarbon metering, Fiscal oil price determination, Cargo declaration systems, These measures aim to curb revenue leakages and crude oil theft.

Addressing community relations, Komolafe disclosed that 137 Host Community Development Trusts (HCDTs) have been established to foster local participation and stability in oil-producing areas.

He reiterated the NUPRC’s commitment to driving sustainable growth and ensuring transparency in Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector.

Speaking on Nigeria’s oil and gas potential and global positioning, he noted that Africa accounts for five of the world’s top oil-producing countries, and Nigeria stands as the continent’s second-largest oil reserve holder and the largest gas reserve holder, with oil reserves estimated at 37.5 billion barrels, while gas reserves stand at 209 trillion cubic feet (TCF).

He added that oil production in Nigeria now averages 1.75 million barrels per day (BOPD), with a gas production rate of 7 billion standard cubic feet per day (SCFD).

On regulatory reforms and achievements, the NUPRC boss stated that since the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021, the Commission has driven several initiatives to enhance regulatory effectiveness and attract investments.

These reforms, according to him, focus on increasing oil and gas reserves and production, enhancing hydrocarbon accounting transparency, achieving cost efficiency and decarbonisation in upstream operations, ensuring stability in host communities, and reducing the carbon footprint of oil and gas activities.

On the 2024 Licensing Round and Investment Drive, Engr. Komolafe highlighted that NUPRC launched its 2024 Licensing Round, offering 24 oil and gas assets to investors. To attract global participation, the commission held roadshows in Houston, Miami, London, and Paris, showcasing Nigeria’s energy potential.

Shedding light on the Nigeria Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP), the CCE assured that the project is at the forefront of the country’s energy transition strategy and aims to eliminate routine gas flaring, reduce methane emissions, and encourage carbon capture technologies. Additionally, the Carbon Credits Earning Framework seeks to monetise decarbonisation efforts while promoting sustainable energy practices.

Giving a brief on revenue growth and financial performance, coupled with industry challenges, he mentioned that NUPRC has consistently exceeded revenue targets. In 2024, the commission outperformed its budgeted revenue collection by 84 per cent, marking a strong financial performance for Nigeria’s upstream sector.

To ensure fiscal transparency, NUPRC has implemented regulations on hydrocarbon metering, fiscal oil price determination, and cargo declaration systems to curb revenue leakages and crude oil theft.

On Host Community Engagement and Regulatory Transparency, the Commission has incorporated 137 Host Community Development Trusts (HCDTs) to foster local participation and stability in oil-producing regions. Furthermore, the Alternative Dispute Resolution Centre (ADRC) has been established to resolve conflicts efficiently, reducing disruptions to oil and gas operations.

In light of all these developments, Komolafe emphasised that Nigeria is more ready for business than ever, citing the government’s commitment to regulatory certainty, investment-friendly policies, and global competitiveness.

With a stable political environment, a growing gas economy, and a clear roadmap for energy transition, Nigeria positions itself as a prime destination for energy investments in Africa.

He reaffirmed NUPRC’s commitment to collaborating with global investors, financiers, and energy stakeholders to unlock the nation’s full hydrocarbon potential while driving sustainable development.

National energy giant, Seplat, has made exponential progress towards aligning its production strategy after gainfully increasing asset acquisition and eying crude oil production expansion aimed at 120,000 barrels daily output in the next six months.

Seplat is building on new strategic development projects to double its crude oil production capacity within six months after moving in to fill the gap following ExxonMobil’s retreat from Nigeria’s onshore oil sector.

Seplat’s chief financial officer, Eleanor Adaralegbe revealed this projection while speaking with the Financial Times on Tuesday. He said the London-listed company plans to double output from about 50,000 barrels per day to roughly 120,000bpd over six months.

He hinted that the assets have had very minimal investments until now, but assured that there will be an opportunity to grow that much further once Seplat comes in fully.

The company completed its purchase of a range of oil and gas assets owned by ExxonMobil in December after a delay of more than two years by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission to sign off on the deal.

The $1.28 billion acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited makes Seplat one of the biggest domestic producers with an asset base of 11 onshore oil blocks, 48 oil and gas fields, three export terminals, and five gas processing facilities.

Adaralegbe said, ‘the assets have had very minimal investments until now. We expect that once we come in there will be an opportunity to grow that much further.’
According to Seplat’s chief executive, Roger Brown, the combined assets mean Seplat controls 16 per cent of Nigeria’s present production capacity, adding that, the firm will run the assets in conjunction with the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) as legally mandated in the country’s oil and gas industry.

Brown said his company was confident that it could work with NNPC to raise overall production, a stated goal of Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu.

“We have no concerns working with NNPC.  There’s been a massive change with President Tinubu, realising that production is a great way of getting dollars into the country and supporting the currency,” Brown said.

Similarly, the firm’s chief operating officer, Samson Ezugworie, noted that many of the Nigerian assets require time and investment so they can be produced again after being left idle.

“We have over 600 wells drilled, and barely 200 of them are producing. We have significant idle wells that need to be rejuvenated and brought back into production within a short time,’he noted.

Exxon’s sale comes as international oil groups exit Nigeria’s troubled onshore and shallow water sector, which has been beset by decades of environmental damage and, more recently, by declining production

Nigeria’s crude oil production has surpassed 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) for the first time in four years, surpassing its December 2024 quota set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The output, which is excluding condensates, signifies a resurgence that is crucial for Nigeria’s economy, heavily reliant on oil revenues amid ongoing reforms aimed at boosting production capacity.

OPEC had previously set Nigeria’s production quota at 1.5 mbpd, which the country has now successfully met. This

According to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Nigeria’s output rose by 40,000 bpd to reach 1.51 million bpd, marking its highest production level in four years.

Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri,  on Monday, highlighted key achievements in the oil sector under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.

He emphasised that crude oil production has risen significantly from one million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.8 million bpd, including condensates.

Taking to his official X (formerly Twitter) account, Lokpobiri explained that upon assuming office, President Tinubu issued a directive to boost Nigeria’s crude oil production. The minister noted that this mandate served as the foundation for the ministry’s subsequent accomplishments.

Lokpobiri further stated that within the first 18 months of Tinubu’s administration, the government succeeded in attracting foreign investments and fostering peace in oil-producing communities across the Niger Delta.

The country, which had faced challenges maintaining production, capping at 1.3 million bpd in 2023, closed the year with a significant improvement, exceeding OPEC’s quota.

Despite this achievement, Nigeria’s production still fell short of the 2024 budget projection by 500,000 barrels. This gap has compelled the nation to intensify efforts to diversify its revenue base, relying more on taxes and customs duties to bridge the deficit.

In August 2023, OPEC retained Nigeria’s production quota at 1.5 million bpd as part of its global oil price stabilisation strategy.

Further progress was reported in October when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited disclosed achieving 1.8 million bpd. This milestone was attributed to enhanced security measures aimed at reducing oil theft and curbing pipeline vandalism.

However, the NNPC did not specify whether the 1.8 million bpd figure referred solely to crude oil or included blended and unblended condensates, which are excluded from international sales.

While Nigeria experienced a production boost in December, the overall output of OPEC members saw a notable decline, primarily due to strategic cuts by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) aimed at stabilising global oil prices, as per Bloomberg data.

The UAE scaled back its oil exports to an 18-month low, with state-owned oil company ADNOC reducing crude oil cargo allocations for select Asian customers in January and February.

Iran’s oil production fell by 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.32 million bpd in December. Despite this drop, the country’s output remains near its highest level in six years, even as potential challenges loom from the incoming U.S. administration.

Libya, however, demonstrated a strong recovery from recent political turmoil, increasing its production by 40,000 bpd to 1.23 million bpd. This marks the country’s highest production level in over a decade.