Seventy days to an election, and already the campaign is beginning to look like a war.
Not a contest of ideas. Not a battle of manifestos. A battle for survival — where convoys are stoned, meetings are shot up, party offices are torched, and young men armed with machetes decide who can speak and where.
From Calabar to Benin, from Idanre to Enugu, the message is getting clearer and more chilling: in Nigeria, to campaign is now to risk your life.
If we cannot guarantee a candidate’s right to travel, to gather, to talk, what exactly are we guaranteeing the voter on election day?
The figures are no longer whispers. They are a warning.
In a report by the CLEEN Foundation, cited by the Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room on November 5, Nigeria recorded 70 physical election-related incidents across 19 states and the Federal Capital Territory between January 1 and October 27. Twenty-seven people are dead. Not from an accident. Not from disease. From politics. From 20 distinct incidents of violence.
September alone recorded 14 incidents. Campaign rallies attacked. Party offices targeted. This was the month the country was told, yet again, that politics is not for the faint-hearted.
It came a day after the convoy of Peter Obi was attacked in Calabar, Cross River State, as he travelled to attend a town hall meeting. Suspected hoodlums, reportedly armed with machetes and sticks, descended on vehicles in the convoy around Watt Market, smashing windscreens.
Calabar is not an isolated case. It is not even the first time Obi has been attacked. And after each attack, the script is the same: government and security agencies promise to investigate. The investigations vanish. The attacks continue.
Why do these incidents keep happening? Because in Nigeria, political violence has become a crime without consequence.
Go back to February. Gunmen attacked an African Democratic Congress gathering in Benin City, Edo State, shortly after the party received former Labour Party governorship candidate Olumide Akpata. Peter Obi, former Edo State governor John Odigie-Oyegun and other party leaders had attended the event. The attackers disrupted the gathering before opening fire at Odigie-Oyegun’s residence, damaging vehicles and injuring some people.
The police confirmed the incident and ordered an investigation. On March 2, the Department of State Services arrested 26-year-old Udeme Monday Stephen over his alleged involvement and threats against Obi. In November, the DSS announced that Stephen had been prosecuted before the Federal High Court in Rivers State and sentenced to two years’ imprisonment.
One conviction. No public report has established whether other attackers or alleged sponsors were identified or prosecuted. One young man jailed. The system that sent him, untouched.
Also in February, violence broke out during the APC ward congress in Idanre, Ondo State, leaving two people dead and three others injured, according to the state police command. One of those attacked was Raphael Adetimehin, younger brother of the state APC chairman, Ade Adetimehin. He was reportedly shot and attacked with a machete, while his vehicle was set ablaze.
Reports differed about his condition, but the police confirmed two deaths without publicly identifying the victims. The police subsequently announced that they had arrested 13 suspects. Residents of Idanre later petitioned President Bola Tinubu, Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa and security agencies, demanding an independent investigation and prosecution of those responsible. Yet, available reports do not establish whether the suspects were eventually charged or convicted.
Thirteen arrests. Zero answers.
In March, suspected political thugs disrupted the planned opening of an ADC secretariat in Bakassi Local Government Area of Cross River State. They dispersed party supporters and destroyed canopies, loudspeakers, chairs and other equipment prepared for the ceremony. The Cross River State Police Command confirmed the incident and said officers had been deployed to restore order. Again, available reports do not establish whether anyone was arrested or prosecuted.
On May 21, Senator Ireti Kingibe was allegedly assaulted by suspected political thugs at the ADC secretariat in Gudu, Abuja, where she had gone to observe the distribution of materials for the party’s National Assembly primaries. In a statement, Kingibe said one of the men accompanying an individual identified as Tijani Mubarak threw her against a wall, causing a head injury, while another female aspirant was also assaulted. She further alleged that the group locked the exit doors, trapping those inside until party members forced them open.
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Kingibe said she reported the incident to the police at Apo Division and called for the arrest and prosecution of those involved. Reports reviewed have not established whether anyone was subsequently charged or prosecuted.
A serving senator was assaulted. A police report was filed. Nothing happened.
On 12 September, gunmen attacked a ward meeting of the Nigeria Democratic Congress at Obuoffia Awkunanaw in Nkanu West Local Government Area of Enugu State, opening fire on members gathered for a political meeting in the home ward of the party’s governorship candidate, Chinyeaka Ohaa. The police confirmed that two people were injured, while the NDC identified eight members who sustained gunshot wounds.
On September 28, police arrested traditional ruler Igwe Obiora Igwesi, his brother and former federal lawmaker U.S.A. Igwesi, and eight others over their alleged involvement. They were being investigated for offences including attempted murder and assault occasioning grievous harm. To date, no public report has established whether they were subsequently charged or convicted.
This is the pattern. Attack. Condemn. Arrest. Forget.
If those responsible for previous attacks had been decisively punished, perhaps this would help curtail future attacks. But another bitter truth is that after each attack, civil society and the public often forget too quickly instead of continuing to press the government for action.
Beyond the attacks themselves, what is emerging is a climate of hostility that threatens the freedom of political participation. Campaigns have barely gathered momentum, yet politicians and their supporters are already encountering intimidation, threats and obstruction in different parts of the country. Recent attacks on political gatherings and convoys, along with threats against candidates seeking to campaign in states controlled by rival parties, point to an increasingly difficult environment for democratic engagement.
Political competition should be about persuading voters, not frightening opponents or preventing them from reaching the people whose support they seek.
The right to participate in political activities cannot depend on party affiliation or the goodwill of those in control of a state. The Constitution guarantees freedom of movement, association and expression. These rights extend to candidates seeking to campaign, parties holding meetings and citizens gathering to listen to or support their preferred candidates.
Of particular concern is the use of young people as instruments of political violence. Rather than being encouraged to participate in the democratic process through debate, mobilisation and peaceful political engagement, some are drawn into intimidation, attacks and the destruction of opponents’ campaign materials.
The Inspector-General of Police, Olatunji Disu, warned political actors in August against recruiting young Nigerians for political violence ahead of the 2027 elections. Speaking at a youth security dialogue in Abuja, he said the police would not tolerate the mobilisation of young people to attack political opponents. Yet, it appears that the police have now tolerated such acts.
Hence, security agencies must demonstrate that their duty to protect lives and property applies equally to all political parties and candidates. The arrests made after some of these incidents are welcome, but arrests alone are not evidence of accountability. Investigations must establish what happened, identify all those involved and determine whether the violence was organised or sponsored. The police must also ensure that suspects are properly prosecuted where evidence supports criminal charges.
Political actors, on their part, must exercise restraint in responding to these incidents. Allegations of political sponsorship or complicity should not be presented as established facts before investigations have determined responsibility. The attack on Peter Obi’s convoy in Calabar, for instance, generated accusations about the political affiliation of the attackers, but the police had not established such affiliations in their initial account.
The media and civil society organisations also have an important role in documenting these incidents, monitoring investigations and demanding answers from the authorities. Their responsibility should not end with reporting that an attack has occurred or issuing condemnations. They must continue to ask whether suspects have been identified, whether investigations have been concluded, whether sponsors have been exposed and whether those responsible have faced prosecution.
Without sustained public scrutiny, political violence risks becoming another recurring incident that attracts attention for a few days before being forgotten.
So let us ask the question plainly: If politicians cannot safely travel across the country, hold meetings, address supporters and engage citizens without intimidation, what does this portend for the 2027 elections?
And if such attacks continue without credible investigations and consequences for those responsible, what assurance will voters have that they can freely participate in the electoral process?
Nigeria must decide, and decide now, whether 2027 will be settled by the ballot or by blood. Because a democracy where you need courage to campaign and luck to survive is no democracy at all. It is a war by another name — and in war, everybody loses.
