The announcement of vice-presidential candidates by the major political parties has shined a spotlight on the potential effect of running mates on the result of the 2027 presidential election.
President Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) will seek re-election along with Vice President Kashim Shettima as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) closes nominations.
Meanwhile, Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and former Vice President, has chosen former Rivers State governor Rotimi Amaechi as his running mate.
The National Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate, Peter Obi has also picked former governor of Kano State, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, as his running mate.
The emergence of the three tickets has focused attention on the political experience, regional appeal and grassroots support that the running mates are expected to bring to their respective campaigns ahead of the February 2027 presidential election.
The APC has Shettima on the ticket, having served as vice president since 2023. He is a former governor of Borno State and former senator representing Borno Central and is expected to be a key player in the party’s effort to maintain support in the North-East.
Atiku is also from the North-East, which is expected to be a major battleground in the election as he seeks to consolidate his traditional political base.
In the 2023 presidential election, Atiku won Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe states, while Tinubu won only Borno State in the zone.
Many see Amaechi’s selection of Atiku as the ADC’s presidential candidate as a move to strengthen the party’s foothold in the South-South and extend its influence to the South-East.
Amaechi, a former Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly, two term governor and ex-Minister of Transportation, brings decades of political and administrative experience to the ticket.
He was one of the top contenders in the APC presidential primary ahead of the 2023 election, after Tinubu.
Tinubu won Rivers State in the 2023 presidential election, but Peter Obi was the dominant candidate in much of the South-East. Obi also enjoyed major support from some parts of the South-South.
Tinubu scored 1,271 votes in the 2023 APC presidential primary, while a former minister and strong contender, Amaechi, had 316 votes. Former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo got 235 votes.
Obi’s choice of Kwankwaso is expected to improve the party’s chances in Northern Nigeria, especially in Kano State and some parts of the North-West, for the NDC.
Kwankwaso is a former governor and senator of Kano State and is credited with leading the Kwankwasiyya Movement, one of the country’s most influential grass-roots political organisations.
He won the 2023 presidential election in Kano State, defeating APC, PDP and Labour Party candidates by a large margin.
Kwankwaso, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate, won the election with 58.4 per cent of the votes and carried the state by almost 440,000 votes, a margin of victory of 26.9 per cent over the runner-up, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The other two main contenders, Tinubu and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, trailed with 7.3 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively.
But the Kwankwaso’s appearance on the ticket followed internal disagreements in the Kwankwasiyya Movement after his squabble with his political godson, Governor of Kano State, Abba Kabir Yusuf, who defected to the ruling APC.
Policy and political analyst, Suleiman Hassan Gimba said Nigerians should not think elections are won on the basis of personalities on a presidential ticket.
Several factors determine presidential elections, he said, such as how people perceive the leadership, how the campaign is organised, financing, security, electoral integrity and voter turnout.
“All three (APC, ADC and NDC) have picked people with considerable political experience. But experience doesn’t automatically translate into votes. “Now every ticket must convince Nigerians that it has a credible solution to the economic and security challenges of the country,” he said.
Gimba said vice-presidential candidates provide political structures, strategic advice and regional influence to presidential campaigns but warned against the assumption that they could deliver entire states or geopolitical zones on their own.
Kwankwaso has one of the strongest independent grassroots political movements in the country, while Shettima has administrative experience and knowledge of the North-East and Amaechi has decades of political organisation and executive experience,” he said.
“Kwankwaso is the running mate with the strongest independent grassroots political following,” said Dr Christian Okeke, a lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka.
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“The Kwankwasiyya Movement is now a dependable electoral structure that has consistently demonstrated its political strength,” he said.
“I don’t want to downplay the strength of other vice presidential candidates but I think Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has the most natural grassroot followership. “The movement he created has translated into electoral value and remains his greatest political asset,” he added.
“Shettima has the advantage of incumbency, but Amaechi has years of administrative and political experience,” Okeke said.
But he insisted the success of any presidential ticket would ultimately depend on how well the parties mobilise voters and respond to issues that matter most to Nigerians.
Two other analysts, Mahlon and Chilion, who were former members of the PDP and AD respectively, said the political dynamics had changed since Amaechi contested the APC presidential primary and Obi contested the 2023 presidential election on the Labour Party platform.
Fakolujo, from Osun State, said it would be difficult for the former governor of Rivers State to defeat the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, from Rivers State where they were both governors.
He said, “Amaechi will have to work even harder to win the state of Rivers. Wike is on ground in the state. You could see how he stopped the state governor, Siminalayi Fubara from getting a second term ticket.
When you go to PDP, Wike is there. He is like a land lord too in APC. He heads all the members of the state House of Assembly. He is even influential at the national level. So Amaechi will really be working to bring in votes for his party and for Atiku.
“He may capitalize on the anger of some APC and PDP members who are not happy with the way Fubara was treated. They might want to express their anger by joining the opposition. Atiku may benefit in this situation.”
“Looking at the South-South, the APC has the whole region. APC rules all the six states. Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers states have all defected to the APC.
Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Rivers were all PDP states until now. “I am sure the governors of the six states will work for the party in their respective states.
From Bayelsa State, Kekefun concurred with Fakolujo’s view on the role Amaechi could play in determining Atiku’s chances.
“But you know Amaechi is young, vibrant and energetic. He’s a fighter, too. “I am sure he will add value to the ticket for the ADC and Atiku,” he added.
Kekefun also said Obi’s selection of Kwankwaso as his running mate was strategic. He said Kwankwaso can pull votes from the seven states in the North West, saying the former Kano governor still has popularity in the state.
“Kwankwaso is very popular with a lot of northern Muslim voters. He also resonates with younger voters. His popularity could enhance Obi’s appeal as some may not be comfortable with him as president.
“But with a deputy like Kwankwaso, Obi is likely to secure more votes from the northern region, especially among northern Muslims,” Kekefun said.
It was also argued that retaining Shettima as Tinubu’s running mate would protect the APC from more controversy over calls for a change in the ticket.
Mallam Abubakar Dahiru said that dropping Shettima for a Christian candidate, as canvassed by some people, could further divide the party.
“So, nothing new to talk about the APC ticket again. All the criticism was made three years ago. Nothing new again, except for the economy and probably security which the administration has to deal with.
“The decision has been welcomed by many Kanuri people and the residents of Borno State. The governor of Borno State, Prof Babagana Zulum, congratulated Shettima. Some governors of the North have done likewise. “I am sure they will deliver votes for the APC ticket,” Dahiru said.
He however said the Vice President would have to work harder to convince voters in the North-East to support the APC ticket instead of Atiku, who is also from the region.
